|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Intrinsic Valuation of TATACONSUM |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TATACONSUM Free Cash Flow Average and Growth
over past 5Y |
|
Key Statistics |
|
|
Year |
|
FCF |
FCF Growth |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2021 |
|
$12,814,300,000 |
-12.38% |
|
EPS (FY) |
10.15 |
|
Market Cap |
723B |
|
|
2020 |
|
$14,624,100,000 |
60.91% |
|
P/E Ratio |
77.24 |
|
Total Asset |
211B |
|
|
2019 |
|
$9,088,300,000 |
1560.44% |
|
Net Income |
9B |
|
Total Debt |
14B |
|
|
2018 |
|
($622,300,000) |
-464.77% |
|
EBITDA |
17B |
|
Total Liab |
48B |
|
|
2017 |
|
$170,600,000 |
-97.15% |
|
Opr Margin |
0.1160 |
|
Debt/Equity |
0.09 |
|
|
2016 |
|
$5,988,800,000 |
|
|
PreTax Margin |
0.1172 |
|
BV/Share |
164.31 |
|
|
5Y Median FCF |
|
$7,215,000,000 |
-12.38% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Overall Market Assumptions: |
|
|
Assumptions: |
|
|
|
P/E for No-Growth Company: |
7.00 |
|
|
|
Perpetual Growth Rate (g): |
2.50% |
|
|
|
Historical US Bond Yield: |
4.40% |
|
|
|
Discount Rete (WACC): |
8.54% |
|
|
|
Current US Bond Yield: |
1.48% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y |
|
Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value |
|
|
Year |
|
FCF Projection |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2022 |
|
$11,228,471,119 |
|
|
MBG Intrinsic Value |
$213.89 |
|
|
2023 |
|
$9,838,895,895 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2024 |
|
$8,621,287,031 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2025 |
|
$7,554,362,894 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2026 |
|
$6,619,475,553 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2027 |
|
$5,800,284,843 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Terminal Value |
|
$98,490,558,488 |
|
|
Net Worth/Share |
$176.81 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DCF Valuation |
|
DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario
Table |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Enterprise Value |
$94,336,428,760 |
|
|
|
Growth Rate |
|
|
(+) Cash & Cash Equivalents |
$27,979,200,000 |
|
|
117.41 |
1.50% |
2.00% |
2.50% |
3.00% |
3.50% |
|
|
(-) Total Debt |
$14,120,100,000 |
|
WACC |
8.44% |
109.5 |
113.8 |
118.9 |
124.9 |
132.1 |
|
|
Equity Value |
$108,195,528,760 |
|
8.49% |
108.9 |
113.1 |
118.1 |
124.0 |
131.0 |
|
|
Shares Outstanding |
921551715 |
|
8.54% |
108.3 |
112.5 |
117.4 |
123.1 |
130.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
9.04% |
102.8 |
106.4 |
110.4 |
115.2 |
120.8 |
|
|
DCF Intrinsic Value |
$117.41 |
|
9.54% |
98.1 |
101.1 |
104.5 |
108.5 |
113.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
© Swarnadeep
Seth (2022) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|