|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Intrinsic Valuation of TSLA |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TSLA Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over
past 5Y |
|
Key Statistics |
|
|
Year |
|
FCF |
FCF Growth |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2021 |
|
$4,983,000,000 |
83.81% |
|
EPS (FY) |
4.89 |
|
Market Cap |
845B |
|
|
2020 |
|
$2,711,000,000 |
178.62% |
|
P/E Ratio |
89.47 |
|
Total Asset |
69B |
|
|
2019 |
|
$973,000,000 |
538.85% |
|
Net Income |
6B |
|
Total Debt |
9B |
|
|
2018 |
|
($221,714,000) |
94.65% |
|
EBITDA |
14B |
|
Total Liab |
31B |
|
|
2017 |
|
($4,142,008,000) |
-164.78% |
|
Opr Margin |
0.1619 |
|
Debt/Equity |
0.12 |
|
|
2016 |
|
($1,564,300,000) |
|
|
PreTax Margin |
0.1581 |
|
BV/Share |
29.22 |
|
|
5Y Median FCF |
|
$860,655,600 |
94.65% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Overall Market Assumptions: |
|
|
Assumptions: |
|
|
|
P/E for No-Growth Company: |
7.00 |
|
|
|
Perpetual Growth Rate (g): |
2.50% |
|
|
|
Historical US Bond Yield: |
4.40% |
|
|
|
Discount Rete (WACC): |
14.13% |
|
|
|
Current US Bond Yield: |
1.48% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y |
|
Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value |
|
|
Year |
|
FCF Projection |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2022 |
|
$9,699,269,259 |
|
|
MBG Intrinsic Value |
$103.88 |
|
|
2023 |
|
$18,879,354,638 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2024 |
|
$36,748,132,466 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2025 |
|
$71,529,205,612 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2026 |
|
$139,229,585,618 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2027 |
|
$271,006,469,950 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Terminal Value |
|
$2,388,918,575,835 |
|
|
Net Worth/Share |
$38.50 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DCF Valuation |
|
DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario
Table |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Enterprise Value |
$1,231,656,621,592 |
|
|
|
Growth Rate |
|
|
(+) Cash & Cash Equivalents |
$18,052,000,000 |
|
|
1258.45 |
1.50% |
2.00% |
2.50% |
3.00% |
3.50% |
|
|
(-) Total Debt |
$8,873,000,000 |
|
WACC |
14.03% |
1187.1 |
1228.6 |
1273.7 |
1322.8 |
1376.6 |
|
|
Equity Value |
$1,240,835,621,592 |
|
14.08% |
1180.3 |
1221.3 |
1265.9 |
1314.4 |
1367.6 |
|
|
Shares Outstanding |
986000000 |
|
14.13% |
1173.5 |
1214.1 |
1258.1 |
1306.2 |
1358.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
14.63% |
1108.7 |
1145.2 |
1184.8 |
1227.7 |
1274.5 |
|
|
DCF Intrinsic Value |
$1,258.45 |
|
15.13% |
1049.2 |
1082.2 |
1117.8 |
1156.3 |
1198.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Swarnadeep
Seth (2022) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|