| Intrinsic Valuation of AMZN | |||||||||||
| AMZN Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over past 5Y | Key Statistics | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF | FCF Growth | |||||||||
| 2021 | ($14,726,000,000) | -156.80% | EPS (FY) | 3.24 | Market Cap | 1268B | |||||
| 2020 | $25,924,000,000 | 19.72% | P/E Ratio | 59.21 | Total Asset | 411B | |||||
| 2019 | $21,653,000,000 | 25.19% | Net Income | 33B | Total Debt | 132B | |||||
| 2018 | $17,296,000,000 | 169.83% | EBITDA | 56B | Total Liab | 282B | |||||
| 2017 | $6,410,000,000 | -33.96% | Opr Margin | 0.0418 | Debt/Equity | 0.97 | |||||
| 2016 | $9,706,000,000 | PreTax Margin | 0.0473 | BV/Share | 13.58 | ||||||
| 5Y Average FCF | $11,311,400,000 | 4.80% | |||||||||
| Overall Market Assumptions: | |||||||||||
| Assumptions: | P/E for No-Growth Company: | 7.00 | |||||||||
| Perpetual Growth Rate (g): | 2.50% | Historical US Bond Yield: | 4.40% | ||||||||
| Discount Rete (WACC): | 10.08% | Current US Bond Yield: | 1.48% | ||||||||
| Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y | Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value | ||||||||||
| Year | FCF Projection | ||||||||||
| 2022 | ($15,432,290,073) | MBG Intrinsic Value | $68.38 | ||||||||
| 2023 | ($16,172,455,311) | ||||||||||
| 2024 | ($16,948,120,437) | ||||||||||
| 2025 | ($17,760,988,102) | ||||||||||
| 2026 | ($18,612,842,617) | ||||||||||
| 2027 | ($19,505,553,875) | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | ($263,649,356,461) | Net Worth/Share | $12.69 | ||||||||
| DCF Valuation | DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario Table | ||||||||||
| Enterprise Value | ($209,216,248,439) | Growth Rate | |||||||||
| (+) Cash & Cash Equivalents | $96,309,000,000 | -24.23 | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | ||||
| (-) Total Debt | $132,318,000,000 | WACC | 9.98% | -22.8 | -23.6 | -24.5 | -25.6 | -26.8 | |||
| Equity Value | ($245,225,248,439) | 10.03% | -22.7 | -23.5 | -24.4 | -25.4 | -26.6 | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 10120000000 | 10.08% | -22.6 | -23.4 | -24.2 | -25.3 | -26.4 | ||||
| 10.58% | -21.5 | -22.2 | -22.9 | -23.8 | -24.8 | ||||||
| DCF Intrinsic Value | -$24.23 | 11.08% | -20.5 | -21.1 | -21.7 | -22.5 | -23.3 | ||||
| Swarnadeep Seth (2022) | |||||||||||