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Intrinsic Valuation of AMZN |
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AMZN Free Cash Flow Average and Growth over
past 5Y |
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Key Statistics |
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Year |
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FCF |
FCF Growth |
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2021 |
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($14,726,000,000) |
-156.80% |
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EPS (FY) |
3.24 |
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Market Cap |
1268B |
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2020 |
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$25,924,000,000 |
19.72% |
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P/E Ratio |
59.21 |
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Total Asset |
411B |
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2019 |
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$21,653,000,000 |
25.19% |
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Net Income |
33B |
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Total Debt |
132B |
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2018 |
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$17,296,000,000 |
169.83% |
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EBITDA |
56B |
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Total Liab |
282B |
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2017 |
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$6,410,000,000 |
-33.96% |
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Opr Margin |
0.0418 |
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Debt/Equity |
0.97 |
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2016 |
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$9,706,000,000 |
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PreTax Margin |
0.0473 |
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BV/Share |
13.58 |
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5Y Average FCF |
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$11,311,400,000 |
4.80% |
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Overall Market Assumptions: |
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Assumptions: |
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P/E for No-Growth Company: |
7.00 |
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Perpetual Growth Rate (g): |
2.50% |
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Historical US Bond Yield: |
4.40% |
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Discount Rete (WACC): |
10.08% |
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Current US Bond Yield: |
1.48% |
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Forcasting Future Free Cash Flow for next 6Y |
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Modified Benjamin Graham's Intrinsic Value |
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Year |
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FCF Projection |
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2022 |
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($15,432,290,073) |
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MBG Intrinsic Value |
$68.38 |
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2023 |
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($16,172,455,311) |
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2024 |
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($16,948,120,437) |
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2025 |
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($17,760,988,102) |
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2026 |
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($18,612,842,617) |
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2027 |
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($19,505,553,875) |
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Terminal Value |
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($263,649,356,461) |
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Net Worth/Share |
$12.69 |
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DCF Valuation |
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DCF Valuation "What If" Scenario
Table |
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Enterprise Value |
($209,216,248,439) |
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Growth Rate |
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(+) Cash & Cash Equivalents |
$96,309,000,000 |
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-24.23 |
1.50% |
2.00% |
2.50% |
3.00% |
3.50% |
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(-) Total Debt |
$132,318,000,000 |
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WACC |
9.98% |
-22.8 |
-23.6 |
-24.5 |
-25.6 |
-26.8 |
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Equity Value |
($245,225,248,439) |
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10.03% |
-22.7 |
-23.5 |
-24.4 |
-25.4 |
-26.6 |
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Shares Outstanding |
10120000000 |
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10.08% |
-22.6 |
-23.4 |
-24.2 |
-25.3 |
-26.4 |
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10.58% |
-21.5 |
-22.2 |
-22.9 |
-23.8 |
-24.8 |
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DCF Intrinsic Value |
-$24.23 |
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11.08% |
-20.5 |
-21.1 |
-21.7 |
-22.5 |
-23.3 |
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Swarnadeep
Seth (2022) |
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